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Master Thesis Presentation

Transcript: Risk Premiums in Electricity Futures and the German Nuclear Withdrawal Introduction Timeline of events What are the consequences? Research objective The research question is: How is the risk premium in electricity futures influenced by the decision of the German government to completely withdrawal from nuclear power generation? Theory suggest the risk premium is dependent on volatility and skewness (price spikes) of the electricity prices (B&L, 2002). The risk premium can indicate changes in the market perceived risks because of the decision. Data Data: EEX: 1-month future contracts (Phelix) Epex Spot day-ahead prices (Phelix) intraday prices Base, peak and off-peak prices Methodology Results Additional research results Conclusions For the German nuclear withdrawal the results were mostly non-significant and therefor meaningless. :( HOWEVER: The result that the risk premium in German electricity has disappeared since 2008 is very interesting and should be further researched. Not by me though. :) Thank you for your attention March 14 2011 closed Temporary closure of 8 reactors (at least 3 months) Creation of an ethics commission assigned to investigate possibilities for further energy transitions Changes in generation mix of electricity can have significant influence on the price of electricity. Decreased capacity can increase volatility of electricity prices and chances of price spikes. Furthermore a change in the stacking order of the supply of electricity can change the marginal producer and shift price levels Author: Steven van Gils Supervisor: Mehtap Kilic Co-reader: Ronald Huisman September 2012 still open german nuclear capacity None significant B&L Very little sign results Fukushima disaster March 11 2011 March 31 2011 B&L (2002) This thesis investigates the effects of the decision of the German government to completely withdrawal from nuclear power generation Massive German demonstrations Why the risk premium in electricity future prices? F&F (1987) F&F Beta VAR should be negative Beta SKEW should be positive strange because this model is least logical German nuclear moratorium March 30 2011: The Ethics Commission for a Safe Energy Supply publishes its report: Germany's Energy Transition - A collective Project for the Future GOOD Rsquare German decides to permanently shutdown the already closed reactors and to complete withdrawal from nuclear power generation by 2022

master thesis presentation

Transcript: The Problem Soaring power demand loads -> Electric utilities design capacities according to peak loads -> .... this necessitates capital intensive investments ... and often leads to having under-utilized systems... Solution...?! Control our demand! -> Demand Side Management Research Objectives?! Propose a Smart Grid environment for the MENA Region (PLC, NCS) Develop a Load Management algorithm for the Residential Sector (DSM) Add modifications to the electricity billing system Energy Situation @MENA Residential Sector! 40-65% ~ Algeria, UAE, KSA, Egypt, Jordan, Syria Demand Side Management DSM @MENA?! Mostly Energy Efficiency projects Very limited initiatives in Demand Response (mainly in the industrial sector) No Load Management practices! Wet Appliances 1 Washing Machine 1 Dryer 1 Dish Washer Brown Appliances 1 Laptop 1 Desktop Computer 2 TV 2 CFL Lighting (10 W) 2 CFL Lighting (15 W) 3 CFL Lighting (20 W) 1 Game Console 1 Radio Cold/Hot Appliances 1 Refrigerator 1 Freezer 1 Water Heater 1 Water Cooler 4 Air Conditioner Cooking Appliances 1 Coffee Maker 1 Microwave 1 Electric Stove Algorithm?! Smart Grid! Characteristics?! Integration of electricity sector stakeholders Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Advanced system monitoring and control Substation and distribution automation Integration of energy storage and electric vehicles Integration of distributed generation capacities Advanced interfaces and decision support tools. Benefits?! More efficient electricity generation, transmission, and distribution Quicker electricity restoration after power interruptions Reduced peak demand Reduced management, operations and maintenance costs for utilities Lower power costs for consumers Increased integration of distributed renewable energy generation capacities Improved security, reliability, flexibility, quality of service, and robustness Power Line Communication PLC operates by sending data over power lines... Data signals modulate a radio frequency carrier signal which is then sent over power wiring Advantages of PLC @MENA Extensive coverage in the MENA Region (access of electricity exceeds 90% in most countries of the region) Needed PLC extensions can be established quickly and in a cost effective way Offers multiple services via the same infrastructure (e.g. Load Management, and Advanced Metering Infrastructure) Networked Control Systems Intelligent control device + Transceiver = Smart Transceiver Such solutions offer... Modularity Easy installation Great flexibility and reliability Short time to market development Replace central control and automation systems which are no longer sufficient for large complex smart grid operations Socio-Economic Issues Electricity Pricing Fixed pricing (independent of time and demand load) Flat rate Piecewise linear Time differentiated pricing: Time of Use Pricing (TOU) Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) Real Time Pricing (RTP) Electricity Billing Energy Charges ($/kWh) Demand Charges ($/kW) Extra Charges (installations, taxes, garbage collection!) energy charges demand charges Family household ~ E =750 kWh, Pmax = 10 kW Demand charge is 7 L.E. for every kW of maximum power demand a month Results, Conclusions and Future Work Results Algorithm Peak minimized by more than 35% Load factor improved by more than 58% Proposed billing system modifications Proposed dynamic sizing for energy charge blocks (10 - 20%) bill savings for lower meter capacities Adding demand charges (10 -15%) bill savings after minimizing peaks Proposed outlines for a Smart Grid environment @MENA Power Line Communication Networked Control Systems Java-based Graphical User Interface Conclusions Set clearer energy strategies with strict bounding measures (focus on DSM practices) DSM programs need to be more effectively and efficiently designed and deployed, and highly promoted More customer engagement Load Management ~ creates a "virtual power plant" that generates "negawatts" instead of megawatts! Future Work Design a complete DSM program easily customizable by different electric utilities in the MENA Region Investigate other access communication technologies (wireless communication systems) Consider long term usage changes and penetration rates of appliances Study a multi-variant regression model for assessing the performance of DSM programs. Thank You! Non-flexible loads - 24 hours load profile Total electricity consumption - 24 hours load profile Access PLC Total Population > 376 Million Land Area 8,644,000 sq. km. 57% ~ proven oil reserves 41% ~ proven natural gas resources Energy use growing by a rate of 170% complete load managment system in smart grid environment Multi-variant Regression Model Internatiional Monetary Fund 2009 Types of Load Management Load Shifting Flow Chart Electricity Consumption Pattern of Different Appliances Load Shedding NIST 2012 Shiftable/flexible loads to be shifted - 24 hours load profile World Bank Development Indicators 2009 Meter Capacity vs. Energy Charge Blocks Results

Master Thesis Presentation

Transcript: The number of recalls has been surging over the last decade, this increase can be explained by a number of factors, including the complexity of products, more stringent product-safety legislation and higher demands by customers. Recalls can be seen as a firm's worst nightmare, with serious consequences for a company's sales, their marketing instruments effectiveness and reputation. This thesis focuses on the consequences of a product recall on shareholder wealth, in other words; how do product recalls influence the stock price? Presentation outline - Results; results of the analysis regarding different aspects. - Abnormal returns - Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) - Regressions - Hypotheses - Conclusions - Limitations and further research - Theoretical framework; most important papers on the subject will be discussed. - Differences across industries; predictions based on literature. - Different aspects of product recalls; predicted consequences for shareholder wealth. - Hypotheses - Methodology section; data, descriptive statistics and analysis. Theoretical Framework $1.25 Wednesday, September 24, 2014 Research question; Number of recalls increases Introduction ‘’Do product recalls cause abnormal stock returns and do these returns differ across industries where we correct for different factors influencing the returns?’’ Vol XCIII, No. 311 Master Thesis

Master thesis presentation

Transcript: Managing Memories Interactive (television) Advertising Generation effect in an interactive television setting Interactive Treatment Nothing about the relationship between factors Relatively weak generation Effect isolation Theoretical Background Associative Network Model Cognitive Effort or ''Generating'' itself Interactive (television) Advertising the Generation Effect: Slamecka and Graf, 1978 Filling in the Numbers Sub Questions: I do the laundry 7 times a week, and product X saves me 20 euro a week Implementation Master Thesis Defense General Brain and memory Theories I do the laundry ... times a week, this makes that product X saves you a total amount of ... euro Games Personalize Rewards Information choice options Main Question: ''paid and unpaid presentation and promotion of products, services and ideas by an identified sponsor through mediated means involving MUTUAL ACTION between consumers and producers" lot of research to be done into mental reasoning behind interaction effects Teun Scholtens General Brain and memory Theories Motivation Preference excluding Examples: Implementation Monitoring Television usage at home Actual Buying behavior Investigate relationship including variables Follow up commercials More specific thought Games Design of the Experiment Implementation of findings 24 Sept. 2012 Research Limitations Free recall vs Recognition Motivation and the Ability to process information ‘The generation effect in advertising appeals’ Moore et al. , 1986 Generation effect and the relation with Interactive Advertisement Presentation Program Introduction Introduction Research Limitations and Errors Actual Design Considerations Television Commercials Customer Based Brand Equity: resonance and awareness Formats and effectiveness 'Can we improve memory performance by making use of self generated interactive television advertisements' ? Importance: interaction persuasion Results Future Studies and Possibilities Theoretical Background Static Treatment Neuromarketing: other theories Handing out free coffee The Generation Effect Hypothesis to Test Place Product no Instructions no cross influencing on moment of coffee hand out Time Frame Identical Procedures Collecting the Data Visual and Verbal Presentation Different versions of Static Movie 'Zeigarnik effect' 'Google effect' Future Studies and Opportunities Problem Solving: Jacoby, 1978 The Generation Effect H1: viewers of the interactive movie remember on average more product benefits as the static viewers Design of the Experiment H0: viewers of the static movie remember on average the same amount of product benefits as the interactive viewers

Presentation Master Thesis

Transcript: Presentation Master Thesis Susan Kagie 14 August 2014 Supervisor: Filip Buekens Second reader: Matteo Colombo The Role of Status Markers and Correlated Equilibria in Explaining the Emergence and Maintenance of Social Institutions

Master thesis presentation

Transcript: Suggested stress markers reflected in saliva http://www.caaquaculture.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/brain.png Immunoglobulin A (IgA) http://www.icgeb.org/~p450srv/ligand/cortisol.gif Oral microflora: Lactobacillus not dominating Comments Ethical aspects CONCLUSION P<0.001 AGENDA Academic stress - Brief Naturalistic Stressor Oral microflora Digestive enzyme May help in defense against bacteria SAM-system Produced with saliva Stress --> increased levels Future prospects Significant (P<0.001) increase in amount of lactobacilli in the probiotic group Probiotics and stress The Effects of Lactobacillus plantarum 299v on Cortisol, IgA and Alpha-amylase in Human Saliva during Stress Incidence test --> significant increase (P<0.001) in LP299V in probiotic group Significant difference (P<0.05) day 10 relative cortisol values Cortisol --> possible good end-point in future studies Some weak correlations found, not enough to draw any conclusions from Verifying the method Writing an application to the Regional Ethical Review Board Performing a power calculation Optimizing of the experimental design Sampling procedure http://www.cheneyart.com/Diane_Cheney/html/pressure.htm Probiotics Background research IgA in minor gland saliva Cortisol Errors Secretion stimulated by sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous system (HPA & SAM) Stress No significance found for alpha-amylase and IgA No change in control group Lactobacillus plantarum 299v (LP299V) Hannah Andersson and Cecilia Tullberg Oral microflora --> ourselves Lactobacilli: cultivation on selective media Lp299v: Random Amplification of Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) Master of Engineering in Biotechnology Lund Institute of Technology 2013-05-30 Also a BIG thank you to: Our supervisors Åsa, Siv & Irini Our examiner Göran Molin Mikael Sonesson at Tandläkarhögskolan, Malmö Marie Kala, Christine Larsson & Jie Xu at the department of Applied Nutrition Everyone participating in the study Prevents bacteria to adhere to mucous surfaces http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_OwoEg7Db_AE/TQSujRhM6CI/AAAAAAAAA9I/0Er-OeR_3Eg/s1600/Sialadenitis.jpg Values corresponds to values found in literature, but slightly lower. Reasons: Statistical tools: SigmaPlot and QuickStat Resting - decreased levels Before each sampling - Perceived stress questionnaire (Levenstein et al. (1993)) Significant correlation (P<0.01) with stress within control group, but negative Steroid hormone Released by HPA axis Regulation of metabolism and blood pressure Immune suppression Stress --> increased levels Cortisol levels change quickly upon acute stress The objectives were reached Comments 1) Aims and Objectives 2) Background 3) Experimental design 4) Sampling Procedure and Analysis Methods 5) Results and Discussion 6) Obstacles 7) Conclusion 8) Future prospects Stress test correlated to alpha-amylase & IgA --> no significant results Hard to compare the study with other studies (type of studies, exam, academic structure etc) Good for the intestinal health IgA in whole saliva Comments Similar to acute or chronic stress? RESULTS and DISCUSSION --> Problems on the way Comments Large individual differences Median values corresponds with values found in literature Probiotics --> increase sIgA (previous studies) No significant change in IgA Takes time for IgA levels to adapt IgA affected by many things, eg. cold Alpha-amylase The product Obstacles Chronic stress --> decreased IgA levels? Most abundant antibody in saliva and other secretions Supervisors: Åsa Håkansson, Siv Ahrné & Irini Lazou Ahrén Examiner: Göran Molin On the market http://bringwell.no/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Probi_mage_artikkel3.jpg Ethical Application Increased levels of cortisol - behind the negative impact of chronic stress? IgA Significant increase (P<0.001) in levels of lactobacilli Analysis "Live microorganisms which when administrated in adequate amounts confer a health benefit to the host" (FAO/WHO, April 30 and May 1, 2002) Stress Comments Probiotics affect the HPA-axis - responsible for release of cortisol, suggested to decrease Dinan, T.G. and Cryan, J.F. (2012) 'Regulation of the stress response by the gut microbiota: Implications for psychoneuroendocrinology', Psychoneuroendocrinology, vol. 37, p. 1369—1378. Part of the first immune defense Indicates colonization of the oral cavity Analysis of samples What kind of stress was measured? 42 test subject --> 21 treatment + 21 placebo 1 drop-out in placebo group Saliva sampling --> quick and simple method P<0.05 BACKGROUND http://tccl.rit.albany.edu/knilt/images/b/b4/Student_stress.jpg Hypothalamus-Pitutairy-Adrenal (HPA) axis Sympathetic-Adrenal-Medullary (SAM) system Saliva sampling: not invasive and less stressful Alpha-amylase --> ourselves Amylase activity Colorimetric Assay kit Saliva Cortisol --> Klinisk Kemi in Lund Electro-Chemi Luminescence Immunoassay (ECLI) Previous studies on alpha-amylase: acute stress. Is this the only stress that changes the levels? Chronic stress and probiotics Longer study

Master Thesis Presentation

Transcript: Agenda All users recorded and given access permissions Handle a lot of user in a manageable way message LockMessage { enum MessageType { SERVER_INFO = 0; LOCK_INFO = 1; UNLOCK_REQUEST = 2; UNLOCK_RESPONSE = 3; DISCONNECT = 4; FW_FILE_REQUEST = 5; FW_FILE = 6; MODULE_INFO = 7; } required MessageType type = 1; optional ServerInfo server_info_msg = 2; optional LockInfo lock_info_msg = 3; optional UnlockRequest unlock_request_msg = 4; optional UnlockResponse unlock_response_msg = 5; optional FWFileRequest fw_file_request_msg = 6; optional FWFile fw_file_msg = 7; optional ModuleInfo module_info_msg = 8; } Handle variable number of Access Points Prevent APs from having an established connection to the server at all times Server will keep configuration of each AP Firmware updates to 3G modules needs to be remotely installed BeagleBoard-xM - Linux Kernel - LEDs Keypad 3G Broadband Module Firmware Updates Encryption of traffic is done by SSH Access Point sets up SSH tunnel to server Access Point Hardware Software Server Software Handle the Access Points Written in Java Graphical User Interface, MVC Data stored in a SQL database - AP configs, Access Permissions, PIN codes, ... PIN codes are salted and hashed Patrik Rutgersson message LockInfo { required int32 id = 1; required int32 major_version = 2; required int32 minor_version = 3; required string name = 4; required string ip_address = 5; required bool position_available = 6; optional double position_longitude = 7; optional double position_latitude = 8; } Software Security Discussion/Conclusions Electronic Lock System Variable number of Access Points Controlled over Internet 3G modules for Internet connection Centralized server to handle all accesses 3G modules intended for laptops Server/Access Points used sockets Ability to send different types of data Use already existing serialization format Google's Protocol Buffer was chosen Written in C/C++ Communicated with module through Linux file I/O Three different threads Thesis was done at Ericsson Communication Introduction Role-Based Access Control Roles with weekly access rights Limit amout of traffic Limitations Secure Communication Protocol Buffers Problem Description The traffic has to be encrypted to be accepted Only accepts APs already added to the system Creates a thread for each connected Access Point Implementation MPNET Manually added to the server Check done when an access point connects New FW available: AP given time when to update Abdi Abate User Management In terms of size, perfect in other electronics Development of a Centralized Electronic Lock System Based on 3G Broadband Modules Access Point Access Control Communication has to be encrypted User credentials cannot be saved in clear text Cont. Communication No real lock will be used. Instead LEDs. No RFID or magnetic card. Just PIN code. Only one physical Access Point. Introduction Problem Description Implementation Discussion/Conclusions System Requirements Develop a Demo system Server Serializing structured data in a platform-neutral way The structures are defined in messages Messages compiled into code Variable nr. of APs -> Limit traffic Call-ins were introduced Time for next connection Well-functional electronic lock system based on 3G 3G is suited for this kind of system Advantages: - Can basically be used anywhere, no cables needed - No other device nearby needed - Still high bandwidth Communication encrypted, but no HW related security - RFID, magnetic card, ... MPDCS

Master thesis presentation

Transcript: Is it ok if activity 1 finishes late ? Someone responsible for the actions Reporting of the actual cost against the planned cost of a project at any moment Risk for the contractor if they work more than planned Limit the scope of projects to development phases and testing phases Case 1 Activity 3 The Planned value ES: earned schedule. It is the number of days that was budgeted to complete the work actually performed AT: the number of days actually worked to complete the work performed How efficient are we with regards to schedule SPI < 1 -> team is working longer than planned for the same work: risk of lateness SPI > 1 -> team is working less than planned for the same work: probable early finish Fixed price contracts The contractor works 1000 mandays at 1000€/manday the client pays 1M€ Episode I Some theory on project tracking The solution already exists in the earned schedule The budget at completion Budget Tracking Contractor B Project Tracking Towards a new framework Risk for the contractor if they work less than planned Activity 1 Total EAC Need to have short activities Well, Activity 3 cannot start if activity 1 is not completed so that is a problem PV = 80 EV = 60 old SPI = 0.75 AT = 80 ES = 60 new SPI = 0.75 A contingency action PV or budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS) The schedule performance indicator Important for the contractor in a fixed price Case 2 PV = 100 EV = 90 SPI = 0.9 PV = 100 EV = 100 old SPI = 1 AT = 133.33 ES = 100 new SPI = 0.75 Study shows the need for 400 mandays to complete the project An importance: a probability and an impact CPI = EV/AC Time & expenses contract Rate = 1000€/manday Planned = 900 mandays How much ? How long ? Client: "Lets just upload an excel spreadsheet with all the information in it" How much is to be spent First definition of the solution SPI = EV/PV Estimate at completion EAC The earned value will not change if activities are long Split the project in 2 when there is a significant shift in the project delivery speed PV = 20 EV = 15 old SPI = 0.75 AT = 20 ES = 15 new SPI = 0.75 Risk for the client if they work more than planned SPI = ES/AT Nov Second definition of the solution 1. A project is not going well 2. An action is taken to improve the efficiency Client: "I want a screen in which I will fill in the information and click on a button to submit" The SPI is inefficient Simple Case EAC = BAC/CPI Activity 1 Risk need: Episode II The Earned Value Management (EVM) EAC = 900 K€ + 1 M€ EAC = 1.9 M€ The EAC is the sum of the actual cost and the estimate to completion (ETC) How much should have been spent LCPI is the local CPI LCPI = (EV(t)-EV(t-t0))/(AC(t)-AC(t-t0)) t0 is a parameter that will depend on the project forcasted overrun = 100 K€ Verify that everything goes according to plan Activity 3 Master Thesis presentation Nicolas Dennewald AC or Actual cost of work performed (ACWP) The Actual Cost PV = 100 EV = 75 SPI = 0.75 Sept Planned = 1.8 M€ Schedule tracking Need for a new formula that will take into consideration the fact that the project is no longer going in the same way Does it impact the delivery date ? Budget tracking PV = 100 EV = 75 old SPI = 0.75 AT = 100 ES = 75 new SPI = 0.75 EAC = 900 K€ Tracking can be ... EAC = AC(time of shift) + (BAC-EV(time of shift))/LCPI Track the dependencies of activities on other activities Third definition of the solution The problem of the applicability of the earned value The difference between the old and the new Activity 2 The earned value Track the progress of activities against the plan Important for the client in a time & expenses How efficient are we with regards to costs CPI < 1 -> team is spending more than planned for the same work: risk of overspending CPI > 1 -> team is spending less than planned for the same work: probable underspending Earned value calculated on the basis of the all or nothing How much is the project going to cost at the end of the project Example The estimate at completion The EAC can be compared with the budgeted cost to determine the forcasted deviation between the contract and what will be spent Client: "In fact I want the screen and the excel spreadsheet upload" Earned value calculated on the basis of a percentage of completion The EAC is not precise enough PV = 100 EV = 90 old SPI = 0.9 AT = 120 ES = 90 new SPI = 0.75 Actual cost is 600 K€ How much has been spent The information that we use to define the percentage is the information that we will get from the earned value Activity 1 Scope tracking Contract is a fixed price: 900 K€ Risk for the client if they work less than planned Activity 2 Activity 2 PV = 20 EV = 15 SPI = 0.75 Episode III The problems Activity 3 Total EAC = sum of the EAC of every part of the project A mitigation action The cost performance indicator EAC = 1 M€ No problem it does not impact the other activities anyway Episode IV A new Framework Risk tracking Track the evolution of the solution over time PV = 100 EV = 100 SPI = 1 A framework to

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